Companies Blame AI for Layoffs, but the Data Tells a Different Story

The wave of layoffs at technology and services companies accelerated in 2026, with artificial intelligence appearing more and more often in official statements as the cause. Researchers at the Oxford Internet Institute and analysts at the New York Fed argue, however, that the data doesn't support the scale the headlines suggest - AI has become a convenient explanation for decisions that actually stem from entirely different causes.

A Record Wave of Layoffs

The scale of workforce reductions in the first quarter of 2026 is the largest in three years. Analysts tracking announcements from technology and services companies counted 86 companies that laid off a combined total of more than 80,000 employees - an increase of roughly 267 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, when 103 companies laid off about 30,000 people. Artificial intelligence appears increasingly often in these announcements as a justification for cuts, alongside more traditional terms like restructuring or efficiency improvements.

Among the companies that have announced AI-related reductions in recent months are Lufthansa, which plans to eliminate 4,000 positions by 2030, Salesforce, which has scaled back its customer service teams, and Accenture, which has announced restructuring. Klarna, the Swedish fintech, has cut its workforce in half over two years, and Duolingo is gradually phasing out contracts with external translation and content contractors.

What the Research Shows

Dr. Fabian Stephany of the Oxford Internet Institute at the University of Oxford, who along with his team has analyzed US employment patterns since 2022, when ChatGPT debuted, says that mass AI-driven layoffs simply aren't visible in the data yet. In his view, companies are using artificial intelligence as a convenient excuse, while the real reason is often a correction after pandemic-era overhiring.

They're making the technology a scapegoat - Fabian Stephany, Oxford Internet Institute

Similar conclusions come from a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York among service and manufacturing companies in the New York and northern New Jersey region. The share of service companies using AI there rose from 25 to 40 percent, and manufacturing companies from 16 to 26 percent. Even so, in 2024 artificial intelligence contributed to layoffs at just 10 percent of service companies, and for 2025 only 12 percent of companies planned AI-related workforce reductions. At the same time, 35 percent of companies used AI to retrain workers, and 11 percent increased employment thanks to it.

AI Washing

The phenomenon of attributing layoffs to artificial intelligence regardless of the actual reasons already has its own name - AI washing. Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI, has publicly admitted that some companies cite AI regardless of what's really behind their decision to cut staff. Investor Marc Andreessen points instead to monetary policy - raising interest rates above 5 percent in 2023 forced companies into financial discipline after years of cheap capital and pandemic-era overstaffing that in some teams reached 25 to 75 percent above actual needs.

Not all executives are willing to flatly deny AI's role. Sebastian Siemiątkowski, co-founder of Klarna, says artificial intelligence is "only part of the story" behind his company's workforce reductions. While he claims that, formally, zero layoffs were directly caused by AI, he also acknowledges that the hiring freeze in place since 2023 was "largely" a result of the company's adoption of artificial intelligence tools.

Consequences of a Murky Narrative

Jasmine Escalera, a labor market expert, warns that hiding the real causes of layoffs behind the AI label has real social consequences - it fuels fear of technology among workers who are losing their jobs for entirely different reasons, and it undermines honest debate about where artificial intelligence is actually replacing people versus where it's a convenient alibi for management. Tim Sweeney, the head of Epic Games, is one of the few executives to flatly deny that cuts at his company had anything to do with AI.

For Polish companies and workers, this dispute matters beyond the US market. Artificial intelligence is increasingly cited in restructuring announcements in Europe as well, and researchers note that without precise data it's hard to distinguish real automation of jobs from decisions made for financial or organizational reasons and merely dressed up in AI language. That distinction matters both for labor market policy and for workers themselves as they assess what skills they'll need in the coming years.

Experts cited in reports also point to a paradox that could emerge in the coming years - some companies that today attribute job cuts to artificial intelligence may, by 2027, be rehiring people for very similar tasks once it becomes clear that automation didn't deliver the expected savings or quality of work. That would be further evidence that staffing decisions today are driven largely by financial pressure and a desire to reassure investors, rather than solely by the real capabilities of the technology.