AI Is Shrinking the Job Market for Junior Programmers

The job market for junior programmers in Poland is shrinking, and industry data points to artificial intelligence as one of the main reasons. According to a No Fluff Jobs report, the share of listings aimed at junior developers fell from 12 percent in 2019 to just 5.3 percent in 2025-2026, while Just Join IT reports a figure below 5 percent.

The phenomenon isn't unique to Poland. According to data from staffing agency Randstad, the number of entry-level job postings fell globally by 29 percent between January 2024 and September 2025. The hardest-hit industries were technology, finance, and administration, the sectors where routine tasks are most easily taken over by AI assistants and coding agents.

Why Juniors Lose the Most

The mechanism described by labor market analysts is simple: experienced programmers can use AI tools to boost their own productivity, because they have the business and technical context to judge when a model's suggestion is good and when it's wrong. Entry-level employees lack that context, so instead of amplifying their work, AI starts performing the tasks that used to serve as their on-the-job training, writing simple functions, tests, documentation, or debugging errors.

Konrad Grygo, senior business analyst at OLX Praca, warns against companies hastily eliminating junior positions to cut costs in the short term, while risking a shortage of skilled staff a few years down the line.

Every employee has to gain experience before becoming a specialist - Konrad Grygo, senior business analyst, OLX Praca

Experts on the Social Fallout

Dr Marek Troszczyński of NASK-PIB (Poland's National Research Institute, NASK) points to a broader issue of labor market fairness. In his view, the key is investing in upskilling and rolling out AI in an inclusive way, so the technology doesn't deepen inequality but instead builds a fairer job market. Without such measures, the risk is that the generation entering the workforce today won't gain the experience needed to become the seniors capable of overseeing AI's work in the future.

Piotr Polus, Head of Technology at Krakow-based Miquido, sees it differently. He argues that large language models don't just write code, they also plan work, which could in theory lower the barrier to entry into the profession, if companies learned to recruit based on AI proficiency rather than knowledge of a specific technology.

LLMs don't just generate code, they also plan the work - Piotr Polus, Head of Technology, Miquido

Recruitment Criteria Shift

Some companies are starting to adapt their approach to hiring juniors rather than abandoning it altogether. Miquido describes this as an "engineer 2030" approach, recruiting for interdisciplinary skills and fluency with AI tools rather than knowledge of a single tech stack. In practice, this also means pairing juniors with seniors, where younger employees bring a fresh perspective on using AI, while senior staff teach system architecture and business context.

Piotr Polus stresses that technical knowledge still matters and that AI won't replace an understanding of how systems work, noting that architectural thinking will increasingly define a programmer's value in the job market.

What It Means for Poland

For Poland's IT sector, which built its position over the years partly on a relatively cheap and abundant pool of junior talent, the shrinking of this segment means rethinking entry paths into the profession. Coding schools, bootcamps, and technical universities will need to adapt their curricula to teach not just coding basics but also effective work with AI agents and an understanding of system architecture, since these are the skills that now separate candidates who land a job offer from those left empty-handed despite completing a course.

The trend also affects employers, who must decide whether short-term savings on junior positions will come back to bite them in a few years through a shortage of seniors capable of overseeing and fixing the work of AI systems, since those seniors need to be gaining that experience right now.

Sources: strefabiznesu.pl (strefabiznesu.pl), My Company Polska (mycompanypolska.pl), ITwiz (itwiz.pl)