PIE Report: 3.68 Million Polish Workers in Group Most Exposed to AI

The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) has published a report titled "AI on the Polish Labor Market," identifying twenty occupations most exposed to being replaced by artificial intelligence. Together they employ 3.68 million people - finance professionals, lawyers, public administration officials, programmers, cashiers, sales staff, call center operators, drivers, warehouse workers and accountants.

Who's on the list

PIE's report names the occupations facing the greatest risk of being replaced by algorithms. Alongside programmers and lawyers, the list includes public administration officials, office and legal assistants, accountants and auditors, as well as workers in transport, logistics and manufacturing. This professional group numbers nearly 3.7 million people, a significant share of all employed people in Poland.

The institute bases its calculations on an analysis of the tasks performed within individual positions - the more repetitive activities based on data and text processing, the higher the risk of automation. That's why, alongside office occupations, the list also includes retail cashiers and sales staff, as well as telemarketers, whose work largely consists of repetitive conversation patterns.

The IMF forecast

The report also cites estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to which up to 5.5 million jobs could disappear in Poland over the next 5 to 10 years. That's about 32 percent of all people currently employed in the country. At the same time, the IMF estimates that 4.64 million workers, or 27 percent, could benefit from AI-related changes - through productivity gains and new professional opportunities.

The remaining part of the labor market, nearly 6.87 million people, or 40 percent of those employed, is not expected to feel a significant impact from automation over the coming decade, according to these estimates. The report's authors stress that the effects of AI adoption will vary considerably depending on industry, company size and region.

What's already visible

The data is no longer purely a forecast for the future. According to the "Barometer of the Polish Labor Market," prepared by Personnel Service, 12 percent of workers personally know someone who lost their job in the past year due to automation or the adoption of AI tools. This is the first sign that effects described so far mainly in macroeconomic reports are starting to be felt in Poles' immediate professional surroundings.

Some workers will benefit from the changes, others will feel them painfully, and still others will barely notice them at all - Krzysztof Inglot, Personnel Service

Occupations considered safe

The report also points to professional groups where the risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence remains low. These are primarily occupations requiring direct contact with people and physical work in variable conditions - doctors, nurses, psychologists, as well as plumbers, electricians, hairdressers and chefs. In these professions, the key competencies are ones that are difficult to automate: empathy, improvisation and hands-on work in unpredictable environments.

For Polish companies and public institutions, the report provides a concrete reference point for planning retraining programs. Nearly 3.7 million people in high-risk occupations form a group for which employers and labor offices will need to decide whether to invest in retraining or wait for natural workforce reductions through staff turnover.

Earlier analyses showed that some companies around the world that hastily laid off workers, betting on quick replacement by AI, are now walking back those decisions as implementations turn out to require more time and oversight than expected. The PIE report does not determine how quickly the Polish labor market will go through this process, but it does indicate the scale of the group that will be hit hardest by the change.

The report's authors compared their data with an earlier study by the World Economic Forum, "The Future of Jobs 2023," which similarly pointed to growing automation pressure on office and administrative occupations worldwide. Poland's situation reflects this global trend, though with local specifics stemming from the country's employment structure, where the business services and public administration sectors play a significant role.