Gartner: One in Three Workers Laid Off Due to AI Will Be Rehired by 2029

Companies that mass-lay off workers replaced by artificial intelligence will, in many cases, have to win them back, and at a higher cost. That's according to Gartner's latest forecast, which challenges the assumption that automating jobs delivers a permanent cost reduction.

Gartner analysts have published a forecast that calls into question how many companies have approached AI deployment in recent years. According to them, decision-makers, including IT directors, have widely treated task automation as an end in itself, rather than viewing AI as a tool for strengthening team performance.

A strategic mistake

According to Gartner, the key problem was management's mistaken belief that replacing people with algorithms creates business value on its own. In practice, workforce cuts deliver short-term financial gains but drain organizations of competencies and experience that are hard to rebuild.

Their biggest mistake was believing that automating work was the goal, when strengthening the workforce was the opportunity - Tori Paulman, VP Analyst at Gartner

The problem is made worse by labor market conditions. Analysts point out that globally, the pool of available workers isn't growing, and in many sectors it's shrinking. When companies that hastily cut their teams try to recover lost expertise, they'll face stiffer competition for talent than before the layoffs.

Higher cost of rebuilding expertise

Under the forecast, laid-off workers returning to companies won't do so on the old terms. Gartner notes that recruiting, training and onboarding new (or returning) employees will cost companies significantly more than retaining them in the first place, as competition for available talent intensifies.

That upends the logic many boards have followed over the past two years, that AI-driven job cuts amount to a one-time, permanent saving. Instead, it could turn into a costly cycle of layoffs and rehiring.

Competing on productivity, not savings

Gartner goes further, forecasting that by 2027, three-quarters of organizations that prioritize cost savings over productivity gains in their AI approach will be overtaken by competitors. Analysts say the winners will be companies that build an organization around AI as a mechanism for transforming roles, not just eliminating them.

The competitive edge will go to CIOs and executives who build an AI-based organization, where the value of AI grows by transforming roles and letting workflows cross traditional boundaries - Tori Paulman, VP Analyst at Gartner

Gartner recommends IT directors adopt a strategy it calls talent remixing: shifting employees from low-value tasks into new roles, rather than automatically eliminating positions every time AI is deployed. Companies that resist the temptation to automate every possible task and delegate every decision to algorithms are expected to gain an edge in the long run.

What it means for Polish companies

For boards in Poland, where the topic of AI-driven job cuts regularly resurfaces in public debate, Gartner's forecast is a warning against hasty staffing decisions. Companies planning cuts based on automation rollouts should reckon with the possibility that, within a few years, they may need to rebuild teams under less favorable pay terms than those on which they let workers go.

Gartner's recommendation calls for investing in AI skills development among current staff and managing competencies with the help of artificial intelligence, rather than treating language models purely as a replacement for jobs. That approach departs from the narrative that has so far dominated, of AI mainly as a tool for cutting personnel costs.