OpenAI and Anthropic Chiefs Walk Back Dire Job Market Predictions

Just a year ago, the heads of OpenAI and Anthropic were warning of mass unemployment caused by artificial intelligence. Today both are walking back those predictions, talking instead about job growth and the irreplaceable role of humans. The shift in tone coincides with OpenAI's preparations for a stock market listing and an ongoing wave of layoffs in the tech industry itself.

Sam Altman has publicly admitted that his earlier predictions about the social and economic effects of AI were wrong. Speaking at a Commonwealth Bank of Australia conference, the OpenAI chief said he had expected far greater disruption to entry-level white-collar jobs than has actually occurred.

Our technological predictions turned out to be fairly accurate, but we were completely wrong about their social and economic effects - Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI

From doom to optimism

Just a year ago, on the Uncapped podcast hosted by his brother Jack, Altman predicted that many professions would disappear because of AI. He changed his mind after noticing that a certain human element of work remains resistant to automation even when the technology could theoretically take it over. He himself experimented with letting AI handle his email and Slack messages, but eventually went back to managing that correspondence himself.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic's CEO, has undergone a similar evolution. A year ago he warned that AI could eliminate as much as half of all office jobs in the United States. Now he suggests that automation may actually expand the scope of work done by humans rather than shrink it.

The tech industry paradox

The shift in tone from AI leaders coincides with a wave of layoffs that has hit the tech industry itself, the very sector building these systems, hardest. Since the start of 2026, the industry has recorded between 120,000 and 165,000 job cuts in IT, with more than 220 major tech companies carrying out mass layoffs. Microsoft and Oracle are among the companies that announced large-scale workforce cuts during this period.

Not all the signals point the same way. After running into problems from over-automating certain processes, Ford Motor rehired several hundred engineers, a move commentators cite as an example of course correction after AI was rolled out too aggressively into roles previously held by people.

The Polish perspective

In Poland, the tone remains more cautious than the statements coming from American AI leaders. Rafał Brzoska, CEO of InPost, has forecast that AI could replace as much as 25 percent of white-collar workers, a sharp contrast to Altman and Amodei's new optimism. The World Bank has previously warned that automation could cut Poland's budget by as much as 1 percent of GDP, a sign that local economic forecasts don't automatically follow Silicon Valley's change in tone.

Critics point out that the softened rhetoric coincides with both companies' commercial interests. OpenAI is preparing for a stock market debut, and a gentler image of the technology could support the company's valuation. Anthropic, which significantly increased its revenue in 2026 and is expanding its computing infrastructure, similarly has an interest in presenting its technology as less threatening to jobs.

Labor market analysts stress that the current layoff figures in IT can't be attributed to AI alone, since they overlap with corrections following years of pandemic-era overhiring and with interest rate hikes. Whether the optimism of the OpenAI and Anthropic chiefs will stand the test of time remains an open question, especially since a year ago the same leaders were making exactly the opposite predictions with similar confidence.

Sources: pch24.pl, Rzeczpospolita Cyfrowa (cyfrowa.rp.pl), Fortune (fortune.com), Time (time.com)