ASML Raises 2026 Sales Forecast for Second Time This Year

ASML, the world's only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines needed to produce the most advanced chips, has raised its 2026 revenue forecast for the second time this year. The reason is accelerating demand for equipment used to manufacture AI chips, which is driving orders faster than the company had assumed just a few months ago.

This marks the second upward revision of ASML's financial forecast this year. The company had already raised its expectations earlier, but the pace of incoming orders for machines used to produce advanced logic and memory chips turned out to be faster than management's earlier estimates.

Results Beat Forecasts

ASML's second-quarter revenue reached 9.33 billion euros, up from 8.77 billion euros the previous quarter. Net profit came in at 2.92 billion euros, well above the analyst consensus of 2.62 billion euros. Gross margin improved to 54 percent from 53 percent in the prior quarter.

The company shipped 86 lithography systems during the quarter, up from 67 systems in the first quarter. Management also announced an interim dividend of 1.88 euros per share and the completion of a 1.1 billion euro share buyback.

New Full-Year Guidance

The key change concerns the forecast for all of 2026. ASML raised its expected annual revenue to a range of 43-45 billion euros, up from previous guidance of 39.4 billion euros, an increase of about 16 percent at the midpoint of the range. The full-year gross margin forecast also rose, to 54-56 percent from a previous 51-53 percent. For the third quarter, the company expects revenue of around 11-12 billion euros, while analysts had been expecting about 10.1 billion euros.

Our customers continue to accelerate their capacity expansion plans, giving ASML increasing visibility into long-term demand - Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML

Expanding Production Capacity

ASML's response to rising orders is to increase production capacity. The company plans to raise output of Low Numerical Aperture (Low-NA) EUV systems by 30 percent in 2027, up from roughly 65 units planned for 2026. A similar 30 percent capacity increase was announced for immersion DUV systems, from a base of about 130 units. Management is also considering a further 30 percent capacity increase as early as 2028.

Order growth is being driven primarily by investment in AI infrastructure, data centers that require ever-larger numbers of advanced logic and memory chips. Management noted that service and support sales for the already-installed machine base (Installed Base Management) performed especially strongly during the quarter, a sign that chipmakers are maximizing use of their existing equipment while also ordering new machines for future capacity.

Implications for the Supply Chain

ASML is a bottleneck for the global semiconductor industry. Without its EUV machines, no manufacturer, including TSMC, Samsung, or Intel, can produce chips at the most advanced process nodes. The market is reading ASML's upgraded forecast as a signal that the investment boom around artificial intelligence is not slowing down, and is in fact accelerating in the second half of 2026.

For Polish companies and investors, ASML's results carry indirect but real significance. The company serves as one of the barometers of the entire AI investment cycle, its forecasts influence valuations of memory and chip makers whose products later end up in servers used by Polish companies deploying AI solutions. Rising EUV production capacity also means potentially faster delivery of new generations of AI chips to the market.

Analysts point out that despite tensions related to export restrictions to China, demand for advanced lithography equipment remains strong. Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating on the company's shares, citing growing visibility into orders for the coming years.