Coface Report: One in Six Polish Jobs at Risk From AI Automation

French trade credit insurer Coface has published an analysis showing that nearly one in six jobs performed in Poland could be taken over by artificial intelligence. The study covered 923 occupations and places Poland among the five European countries most exposed to task automation, alongside Germany and Austria.

What the analysis shows

Coface, a company best known for insuring trade receivables, periodically publishes macroeconomic studies for clients and investors as well. This time, the firm's analysts examined employment structures across Europe and estimated what share of tasks in each occupation can already be automated using available AI tools.

For Poland, the figure stands at 17.5 percent, meaning that in practice one in six jobs in the country involves tasks susceptible to automation. That puts Poland in fifth place in the European ranking, alongside Germany and Austria. Higher up the list, meaning even greater exposure to AI, are the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

Which jobs are most at risk

Coface's analysis reveals clear differences between industries. The highest share of tasks susceptible to automation, 29 percent, applies to engineering and computing occupations. Close behind are law and finance, along with creative content-related professions, at 27 percent each. Managerial and administrative roles come in at 24 percent.

In Poland's economy, the exposure of the legal and financial services sector, as well as administration and management, stands out particularly. These are two areas employing a significant share of the Polish workforce, while also being relatively easy to support or replace with tools built on large language models.

In Poland's economy, relatively high exposure to AI is driven above all by the legal and financial services sectors, as well as administration and management - Dr. Mateusz Dadej, chief economist at Coface for Poland and the Central and Eastern Europe region

Poland compared with Western Europe

Dr. Mateusz Dadej notes that although Poland's result is not exceptional compared with Western European countries, it raises important questions about the country's economic development. Poland's employment structure, with a large share of legal, financial and administrative services, means the effects of automation will be felt above all in these sectors rather than evenly across the entire economy.

Such an employment structure, while not particularly alarming compared with some Western economies, raises important questions about Poland's future economic development - Dr. Mateusz Dadej, chief economist at Coface

Coface's economist stresses that the share of tasks susceptible to automation alone does not determine the scale of layoffs. What will matter most is the pace at which companies, workers and the education system manage to adapt to the new tools before automation starts to genuinely replace human labor on a large scale.

Another voice in the labor market debate

Coface's report joins a growing list of analyses warning about AI's impact on Poland's labor market. In recent months, similar estimates, though based on different methodologies and figures, have been published by Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny (Poland's Economic Institute) together with the International Monetary Fund, as well as by the OECD. The discrepancies between the results of different institutions, ranging from just over ten percent to more than fifty percent of tasks at risk, show how difficult it is today to arrive at a clear-cut forecast of the scale of labor market change.

Still, these studies share a common thread: office, legal, financial and administrative jobs are now seen as among the most exposed to automation, while occupations requiring physical presence and human contact remain relatively safe.

What this means for companies and workers

For Polish employers, Coface's finding is another signal that investing in training staff to use AI tools is no longer optional, especially in the legal, financial and administrative sectors. For workers in these industries, the analysis suggests it is worth developing skills that are harder to automate now, such as negotiation, relationship management and oversight of decisions made by AI systems.

Coface says it will keep updating its estimates as language model capabilities evolve, meaning the current figure of 17.5 percent should be treated as a snapshot of mid-2026, not a final forecast.